Amid persistent concerns over inflation and soaring prices, US consumers are exhibiting increased caution during this year’s Black Friday, the country’s premier annual shopping extravaganza. Reports indicate that several major US retailers are revising down their financial projections for the shopping season and the fourth quarter, citing uncertainties stemming from inflation, high unemployment rates, and economic challenges.
Analysts anticipate only marginal growth in US holiday spending this year, trailing pre-pandemic levels and, in some instances, remaining stagnant compared to the previous year. This subdued outlook underscores the broader challenges facing the US economy. In stark contrast, China’s robust consumer spending, notably showcased during the “Double 11” shopping festival on November 11, is anticipated to witness double-digit growth, reflecting China’s swift consumption recovery and its potential to inject new vitality into the global economy.
US consumers, grappling with elevated prices and inflationary pressures, are adopting a more cautious approach to Black Friday spending. A significant number, like Washington-based consumer Richard, have trimmed their budgets and plan to focus on discounted items. Despite a slight ease in US inflation in October, a prevailing wariness persists among consumers, indicating a prevailing sentiment of price sensitivity and a desire for substantial discounts.
Surveys, including one by McKinsey, reveal that 79 percent of US consumers are inclined to “trade down” for holiday shopping, reflecting a 5-point increase since July 2022. Deloitte’s report suggests an 18 percent reduction in consumer spending expectations for November compared to October. Signs of a subdued Black Friday in the US include retailers offering substantial discounts while expressing uncertainty about the holiday shopping outlook. Luxury retailer Tapestry and electronic retailer Best Buy have revised their sales forecasts downward, citing slowing demand and consumer uncertainty.
Analysts attribute the anticipated slowdown in Black Friday sales to the persistent high prices and the consequences of the US economic situation and monetary policy. As total sales growth is expected to decelerate compared to the previous year, concerns over the US economy’s trajectory are on the rise, with some warning of a potential economic downturn that could impact global recovery.
In contrast, China’s “Double 11” shopping spree, known as the world’s largest shopping festival, has reported robust sales figures and highlights. Observers attribute this success to falling prices and a significant surge in sales compared to the 2022 event, reflecting the resilience and potential of China’s consumption rebound. The positive performance is seen as a favorable indicator for global development.
Sales for last year’s “Double 11” reached 1.15 trillion yuan ($157.97 billion), surpassing the $35.3 billion spent by US shoppers during the Cyber Week from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, according to a report from US consultancy firm Bain.