Amidst contentious negotiations over a potential fossil fuel phase-out plan at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, experts are advocating for propelling the green energy transition through market forces rather than administrative directives. The focus should shift towards fostering cooperation for the development and promotion of affordable clean energy.
Debates over whether to phase out fossil fuels and the timeline for such actions are major points of contention among participating nations at COP28, running from November 30 to Tuesday, with over 80,000 global participants. While some countries, including the US and the EU, advocate for an eventual end to fossil fuel use, OPEC+ nations reject agreements targeting fossil fuel production, insisting on focusing solely on reducing climate pollution.
China’s special envoy for climate change, Xie Zhenhua, emphasized the importance of a COP28 deal addressing fossil fuels, acknowledging the need for a comprehensive agreement, even if imperfect. Xie expressed China’s commitment to consulting with other nations to find a suitable solution, emphasizing inclusiveness and acceptability for all parties.
While some developed nations have individual plans to eliminate coal, experts note the challenges in achieving a global fossil fuel phase-out deal. Oil and gas producers may lack equal economic alternatives once such a plan is implemented. Developing countries, prioritizing cheaper fossil fuel energy for economic development, pose additional challenges to a comprehensive phase-out.
Experts argue that COP28 discussions should shift from banning fossil fuels to promoting global clean energy adoption. Pan Jiahua, director of the Institute of Eco-Civilization Studies at Beijing University of Technology, suggests focusing on making green energy economically competitive with coal and oil. Market forces, driven by sustained cheaper green energy, will naturally facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels.
Pan points to China’s success in electric vehicles replacing petrol cars as an example. The momentum of electric vehicle adoption mitigates the oil crisis, reduces emissions, creates employment, and benefits middle-and-low income families with lower usage costs.
A roadmap released by the China Society of Automotive Engineers and the China Automotive Technology Research Center projects a 45 percent and 60 percent market penetration rate for new energy vehicles in China by 2025 and 2030, respectively. By 2030, China’s automotive industry aims to establish a comprehensive carbon emission reduction management policy system.
At COP28, China’s representatives have showcased the country’s rapid progress in renewable energy, leaving a positive impression on foreign leaders. In 2022, China’s wind and photovoltaic power generation capacity reached 1.19 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 13.8 percent of total electricity consumption and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 2.83 billion tons, or 41 percent of global renewable energy carbon reductions in 2022, according to the National Energy Administration.