Germany’s long-awaited strategy for relations with China, presented by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, has raised concerns among Chinese observers who warn of the short-term impact on bilateral ties and the potential consequences for Europe’s unified stance on Beijing. The strategy aims to reduce economic dependency on China while highlighting a desire for collaboration on global challenges like climate change.
The 64-page document, approved by the German cabinet, builds upon the country’s first national security strategy, which focused on domestic security and lacked detailed foreign policy guidelines. The strategy acknowledges a “systemic rivalry” with China and emphasizes the need to minimize risks associated with economic dependence. However, it also states that Germany does not seek to decouple its economy from China.
The Chinese Embassy to Germany responded to the strategy, expressing hope that Germany would view China’s development in a rational and objective manner. The embassy stated that perceiving China as a competitor and systemic rival does not align with reality and would hinder cooperation and mutual trust.
The strategy’s aim to “de-risk” German companies and reduce their reliance on China has raised concerns among Chinese observers. German companies have traditionally played a stabilizing role in bilateral ties, and this strategy may place them in a difficult position.
The opposition to “decoupling” and support for a resilient global supply chain were reiterated by German software and cloud company SAP SE during a meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. SAP emphasized the importance of international cooperation and unified global data security rules.
While the strategy is expected to strain Germany-China ties in the short term, experts predict that its influence will be limited. The final version of the document will reflect negotiations within the German government, which is divided over its China policy.
Germany’s first China strategy is also anticipated to have ramifications for the European Union’s stance on China, as the bloc struggles to establish a unified approach. The strategy reflects a compromise between different factions within Germany and Europe, including those advocating for a tougher stance and those favoring pragmatism.
European countries are likely to determine their individual ties with China based on their specific circumstances rather than blindly following Germany’s strategy. The strategy’s impact on the EU’s stance will be subject to each member state’s independent decision-making.
As Germany seeks to address economic risks and reduce dependency on China, the consequences of its strategy will unfold in the coming months, shaping the dynamics between Germany, China, and the broader European community.