A Eurasian club of countries led by China and Russia is poised to expand again this week, adding Belarus, a staunch ally of Russia that has openly supported Moscow’s war on Ukraine. This move further advances the leaders’ vision of an alternative world order.
The expected admission of Belarus to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at its annual leaders’ summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, marks another effort by Beijing and Moscow to transform the SCO from a regional security bloc into a geopolitical counterweight to Western institutions dominated by the United States and its allies.
Belarus, which assisted Russia in launching its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, will join the ranks of other authoritarian states in the SCO, following Iran’s full membership last year. Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have arrived in Astana for the summit, which begins Wednesday. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the world’s largest democracy, is skipping the event, reflecting unease among some members about the SCO’s current direction.
Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to combat terrorism and enhance border security, the SCO has grown significantly in recent years, aligning with Beijing and Moscow’s shared ambition to counter US “hegemony” and reshape the international system to their advantage. In 2017, the bloc expanded to include India and Pakistan. With Belarus joining, the SCO will have 10 members, representing more than 40% of the world’s population and roughly a quarter of the global economy. The organization also has two observer states, Afghanistan and Mongolia, and over a dozen “dialogue partners” ranging from Myanmar to Turkey and several Arab states.
The SCO’s expansion follows another significant enlargement by the BRICS group of major emerging economies, which also seeks to extend its global reach. As the SCO grows in international visibility and economic influence, its geopolitical ambitions have broadened.
The admission of Belarus, which borders the European Union, “really highlights how the SCO’s mission has changed in the last few years,” said Eva Seiwert, an expert on China’s foreign policy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin. Seiwert noted that Belarus’s inclusion is more of a geopolitical move than one based on economic or security cooperation.
With Russia deep in its third year of war against Ukraine, the SCO has become a crucial diplomatic platform for Putin, showcasing that he is not isolated internationally. For China, whose relations with the US have deteriorated, the SCO’s anti-Western stance has become less of a concern, especially after Iran’s admission.
“They want the SCO to be perceived as a major bloc that cannot be ignored anymore,” Seiwert said. “With all these countries joining, China and Russia want to show they both have a lot of supporters for their worldviews.” In their shared vision, there is no place for US influence in Eurasia.
In a recent meeting with senior foreign ministry officials, Putin outlined a vision for a new system of “bilateral and multilateral guarantees of collective security in Eurasia,” leveraging existing organizations like the SCO and aiming to “gradually phase out the military presence of external powers in the Eurasian region.” Putin discussed this vision with Xi Jinping during his visit to China in May, highlighting the alignment between Russian and Chinese security initiatives.
This broader geopolitical vision will be the “headline message” for China and Russia at the SCO summit, according to Bates Gill, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research. However, Belarus’s membership raises significant questions about the organization’s reputation and mandate, given its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“The SCO can tolerate authoritarian regimes, but Belarus’s inclusion further diversifies and dilutes its original focus on Central Asia,” Gill said. The bloc’s expansion has not been without friction, particularly with the inclusion of rivals India and Pakistan, and recent tensions between Beijing and New Delhi following clashes on their disputed Himalayan border.
The SCO’s increasingly anti-Western orientation has also caused unease among members who seek to maintain good relations with the West, including the former Soviet states in Central Asia. “In some respects, it puts the Central Asian states in a very awkward position,” Gill noted, as these states pursue multi-trajectory diplomacy and do not want to be tied exclusively to Russia or China.
India, too, appears less engaged with the SCO. Last year, India hosted the summit virtually to avoid the optics of welcoming Putin and Xi while seeking closer ties with the US. This year, despite reports that Modi will visit the Kremlin next week, he is skipping the Astana summit.
Even China, the main driver behind the SCO’s expansion, is seeking direct engagement with Central Asia without Russia’s involvement. Last year, five Central Asian leaders attended the inaugural China-Central Asia summit in Xi’an, and a permanent Secretariat for the China-Central Asia mechanism was established in the same city this March.
Despite aspirations to present the SCO as a counterweight to US-led institutions, it remains a weaker and less cohesive bloc compared to NATO, the European Union, or the Group of Seven nations. “The organization is becoming less like an alliance and more of a strategic-vision type of organization representing a Eurasian identity,” Gill said.
After the Astana summit, China will assume the rotating presidency of the SCO for a year. Seiwert from MERICS emphasized that Beijing will work to find common ground among member states. “For China, it’s important that the SCO doesn’t fail and is perceived as successful, despite the difficulties from various expansions,” she said. If the SCO continues to expand, its regional relevance may diminish.
The summit in Astana is set to be a defining moment for the future direction and cohesion of the SCO amidst growing geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine.