In the recent general election in Spain, the Conservative People’s Party emerged victorious, yet fell short of securing a governing majority, prompting negotiations to form a coalition government. Observers note that left-wing parties are more likely to reach a consensus than their right-wing counterparts, and regardless of which side assumes power, prospects for stable and healthy China-Spain relations remain promising.
The center-right Popular Party secured the largest number of seats with 136 but failed to reach the required threshold of 176 to form a government. The far-right Vox party, a potential coalition partner, won 33 seats. On the left, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s ruling center-left Socialist party obtained 122 seats, and the left-wing obtained 31.
Given the current situation, experts suggest that a left-wing coalition is more probable than a right-wing one. However, forming a coalition between the Socialists and the Popular Party seems unlikely due to the parties’ polarized stances. The Popular Party may seek to ally with Vox, but the latter’s controversial image in Spain makes other parties hesitant to join such a coalition.
If the Socialists fail to form a left-wing coalition, there is a possibility of parliament dissolution and re-election. Although pre-election predictions hinted at a potential right-wing government with Vox as a game changer, the results indicate an apparent surge toward the right in European politics.
Despite the rightward trend, analysts view the developments as a “failure of the left” rather than a “success of the right.” This shift is attributed to left-wing governments’ perceived inability to address pressing issues like economic crises, labor, and immigration problems, leading voters to explore alternative options.
While concerns over political stability and consistency arise within the EU regarding Vox’s stance against the EU and its agenda, experts believe that Spain’s domestic politics will not significantly impact its relations with China. Regardless of the coalition formed, bilateral ties are expected to develop smoothly, given the mutual interests of both countries.