In a move that could escalate tensions, the U.S. Congress has approved an $874.2 billion fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which includes provisions for a defense training program for troops in Taiwan and increased cybersecurity cooperation. Chinese experts argue that while the move may not alter the existing military power dynamics across the Taiwan Straits, it could worsen tensions. With the gap in strength between China and the U.S. narrowing, the cost of the U.S. seeking military deterrence against the Chinese mainland is expected to increase, while its effectiveness may be limited.
The NDAA, set to pass in the House and Senate and be signed by President Joe Biden later in December, also focuses on strengthening AUKUS, the security bloc with the UK and Australia. The bill emphasizes the need for the Defense Department to establish a comprehensive training, advising, and institutional capacity building program for Taiwan’s military forces.
While the bill includes calls for continuous support for Taiwan’s defense capabilities, including the acquisition of defense articles and services through military sales, it also urges the U.S. to conduct practical training and military exercises with Taiwan authorities. Additionally, the bill emphasizes deepened military cybersecurity partnerships to defend against hostile cyber activities.
Experts note that, compared to previous NDAA editions, the 2024 bill contains relatively few new elements regarding Taiwan defense. Wang Shushen, an expert at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, stated that the provisions mostly build on previous suggestions from Congress, and their practical implementation will be decided by the U.S. government and Pentagon.
Despite the ongoing military cooperation, Chinese military expert Song Zhongping argues that the U.S. aims to use Taiwan as a pawn to contain the Chinese mainland. While the bill may not significantly enhance Taiwan’s military capabilities, it signals a continued expansion of military ties with the island. Analysts warn that such moves could increase tension in the Taiwan Straits and pose challenges to U.S.-China relations.