Wu Shicun, President of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, delivered a cautionary message at the GT Annual Conference 2024, predicting an escalation in the US-led militarization of the South China Sea in the coming years. Assessing the situation, Wu highlighted a turbulent period in the region since the beginning of the year, expecting further challenges and changes over the next three to four years.
The foremost challenge outlined by Wu is the intensified US-led militarization in the South China Sea. He pointed out the addition of four military bases in the Philippines to the existing five, with indications from the Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command suggesting the possibility of more than nine bases in the country. Wu noted that the US has engaged in over 30 military actions in the South China Sea and its vicinity in the past year, some of which may not have been reported. He also highlighted the establishment of multilateral military security mechanisms targeting China, including alliances like US-Philippines-Japan and US-Philippines-Australia.
Wu expressed concerns about China-Philippines relations, particularly under the administration of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. He highlighted the acceleration of security cooperation between the US and the Philippines against China, stagnation in the consensus on oil and gas cooperation, and provocative incidents in the Ren’ai Jiao (Ren’ai Reef). Wu cautioned against illusions regarding China-Philippines relations during this period.
Regarding the ongoing negotiation over the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, Wu warned of the possibility of a deadlock and remained cautious about the effectiveness of the COC in managing conflicts in the region, even if signed. He raised questions about the persistence of foreign military actions, oil and gas infringement activities, and incidents involving individual islands and reefs, emphasizing the need for a realistic approach.
Wu emphasized the continued importance of the US in the South China Sea and suggested that China should focus on reducing US influence in the region while enhancing its capacity to stabilize it. He underscored the significance of cooperation, stating that without it, more problems would arise in the region, jeopardizing the basis for COC negotiations.