In March, the United States and China resumed semi-official nuclear arms talks for the first time in five years. These discussions, known as Track Two talks, saw Beijing reassuring its U.S. counterparts that it would not resort to nuclear threats over Taiwan. This significant development was disclosed by two American delegates who participated in the discussions.
The Chinese representatives sought to ease U.S. concerns by asserting that China could prevail in a conventional conflict over Taiwan without the need to use nuclear weapons. Beijing considers Taiwan, a democratically governed island, as its territory, a claim strongly rejected by Taipei’s government.
“They told the U.S. side that they were absolutely convinced that they are able to prevail in a conventional fight over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons,” said David Santoro, the U.S. organizer of the Track Two talks and a scholar with detailed knowledge of the discussions.
Track Two talks typically involve former officials and academics who can provide authoritative insights into their respective governments’ positions, despite not being directly involved in official policy-making. In contrast, formal government-to-government negotiations are referred to as Track One talks.
The U.S. delegation in Shanghai consisted of about half a dozen former officials and scholars, while the Chinese side included scholars, analysts, and several former officers of the People’s Liberation Army. These two-day discussions took place in a hotel conference room.
A State Department spokesperson acknowledged the potential benefits of Track Two talks but noted that such discussions cannot replace formal negotiations that require participants to speak authoritatively on highly sensitive issues. The department did not participate in the March meeting, though it was aware of it.
Chinese delegation members and Beijing’s defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
These informal talks occurred against a backdrop of strained U.S.-China relations, with both nations locked in disputes over major economic and geopolitical issues. The resumption of Track One talks over nuclear arms in November was short-lived, with U.S. officials expressing frustration over China’s responsiveness.
The Pentagon has estimated that China’s nuclear arsenal grew by more than 20% between 2021 and 2023. In October, the Pentagon stated that China might consider using nuclear weapons to restore deterrence if faced with a conventional military defeat in Taiwan, which could threaten the rule of the Chinese Communist Party.
China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control and has increased military activity around the island over the past four years.
The Track Two talks in Shanghai are part of a two-decade-long dialogue on nuclear weapons and posture, which was halted after the Trump administration withdrew funding in 2019. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, semi-official discussions resumed on broader security and energy issues, but the March meeting was the first to focus in detail on nuclear weapons and posture.
Santoro, who leads the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum think tank, noted “frustrations” on both sides during the talks but emphasized that both delegations saw value in continuing the dialogue. Plans are underway for further discussions in 2025.
Nuclear policy analyst William Alberque of the Henry Stimson Center, who did not participate in the March discussions, underscored the importance of maintaining dialogue with China on nuclear issues, despite low expectations. “It’s important to continue talking with China with absolutely no expectations,” he said.
These Track Two talks represent a critical step in managing nuclear tensions between the world’s two largest economies, highlighting the importance of dialogue in maintaining global security.