Mary Meng, a 37-year-old mother in Shanghai, finds herself overwhelmed by the demands of her job at a Chinese tech company, leaving her with little time to consider expanding her family. “The work pressure is such that you don’t even have any time to spend with your child,” Meng explains. “How can I think about taking care of two children? I have no idea.”
This sentiment resonates with urban dwellers worldwide, but in China, where the population is rapidly declining and aging, the impact of urban life’s fast pace and high cost on birth rates is particularly concerning. Demographers warn that this issue needs urgent attention from Beijing.
A Declining Population of Mothers
China faces a looming demographic crisis, with the number of women of reproductive age (15 to 49) projected to fall by more than two-thirds to under 100 million by the end of the century. In response, China recently announced plans to build a “birth-friendly society,” including long-sought measures such as lowering childcare and education costs.
However, Beijing also pledged to encourage more urbanization—a move that experts fear could further suppress birth rates. The policy aims to boost housing demand, support the struggling property sector, and stimulate economic growth by increasing productivity and consumption. Yet, it overlooks the reality that urban environments tend to lead to lower fertility rates due to high living costs, expensive education, and the pressures of long work hours.
The Impact of Urbanization on Fertility
Couple infertility rates in China have surged from 2% in the 1980s to 18% today, compared to a global average of around 15%. Factors like stress from urban jobs and industrial pollution contribute to this rise. Fertility rates are notably lower in urban areas, with Shanghai reporting a rate of 0.6 in 2023, compared to the national average of 1.1 and 1.54 in rural regions.
Demographer Yi Fuxian from the University of Wisconsin-Madison criticizes the push for urbanization, stating that it drives young people to “the most birth-unfriendly big cities,” exacerbating the fertility decline and the aging crisis. “The suppression of fertility rates by population density is a biological law,” he notes.
This trend is evident across East Asia, where countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—having urbanized and industrialized rapidly after World War II—now report some of the lowest fertility rates globally.
A Potential Path Forward
Despite its low birth rates, China’s situation is not without hope. With an urbanization rate of 65%, lower than Japan and South Korea’s 80-90%, China still has room to maneuver. Experts suggest that improving rural living standards, providing better public services, and liberalizing land rights could have a more sustainable impact on economic growth and birth rates than continued urbanization.
Samir KC, a professor at the Asian Demographic Research Institute at Shanghai University, emphasizes the importance of population size as a multiplier in the economy. To maintain a stable population, a fertility rate of 2.1 is needed—meaning that for every woman like Meng, who raises only one child, another would need to have three.
The Challenges Ahead
For many young Chinese, the prospect of having children seems increasingly unrealistic. Poppy Yu, a 21-year-old working at a film production company in Beijing, says, “I don’t have the money or energy” to consider starting a family.
China’s vision for a “birth-friendly society” includes reducing parenting and education costs, lengthening parental leave, and offering child subsidies and tax deductions. However, successful birth policies in other countries, such as France and Sweden, also emphasize greater gender equality, stronger labor rights, and robust social welfare systems.
Yun Zhou, a demographer at the University of Michigan, cautions that reducing childcare costs alone is insufficient and may reinforce traditional family values that place domestic responsibilities squarely on women.
For Meng, the issue runs deeper than policy changes. She believes that until Chinese people regain hope for a better financial future, no policy will be effective. “Now everyone thinks there is no prospect at all,” she says. “No matter how hard you work, it is just survival.”
As China grapples with these complex demographic challenges, finding a balance between economic growth and fostering a birth-friendly environment will be crucial for the country’s future.