China unveiled a series of encouraging economic indicators on Friday, underscoring the continued momentum of its recovery in November amid persistent challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in the property sector.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s value-added industrial output saw a year-on-year increase of 6.6 percent in November, surpassing market expectations of 5.6 percent. This figure also represents an improvement from October’s reading of 4.6 percent.
November witnessed robust growth in retail sales, a key metric for consumer spending, with a substantial 10.1 percent year-on-year increase, up from 7.6 percent in October.
The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable at 5 percent in November, matching the October figures, according to the NBS.
At a press briefing on Friday, NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua attributed the sustained recovery to the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. She emphasized that in the coming phase, China aims to accelerate efforts to establish a new development pattern, promote high-quality development, and strengthen macro control measures to solidify and enhance the positive momentum of economic recovery.
Economist Cao Heping from Peking University noted that the strong economic performance aligns with expectations. He highlighted the effects of macro-policies, the typical year-end inventory expansion by manufacturers, and accelerated exports leading up to Christmas as contributing factors.
Anticipating a robust GDP growth of around 5 percent in the fourth quarter, Cao expressed confidence that China will achieve its annual GDP target for this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its forecast for China’s 2023 economic growth to 5.4 percent in November, up from the initial estimate of 5 percent.
Analysts dismissed concerns raised by Western media about China’s economy, emphasizing the nation’s resilience. They stressed the need for patience to allow targeted policies to yield more significant effects.
As China approaches 2024, observers predict a rapid transformation of its economic structure. With new technologies and consumption areas playing a more substantial role, the influence of the real estate sector on overall economic development is expected to diminish.
In the first 11 months of 2023, fixed-asset investment in China rose by 2.9 percent year-on-year. However, real estate development investment declined by 9.4 percent, indicating ongoing downward pressure.
To bolster the real estate market, Beijing and Shanghai announced major adjustments, including reduced down payment requirements and lower mortgage interest rates, aimed at supporting first-home purchases and demand for upgraded housing.
Deng Haiqing, chief economist at AVIC Fund Management Co, emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand, implementing supply-side structural reforms, and fostering high-quality growth for economic security.
The recent Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing highlighted the need to advance private sector development and encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to drive economic innovation through unique and proprietary technologies. Deng urged local governments to earnestly implement existing policies while devising additional measures to boost entrepreneur confidence and stimulate private sector vitality.